Probabilistic Electrical Power Generation Modeling Using Decimal to Binary Conversion
Abstract:Generation system reliability assessment is an
important task which can be performed using deterministic or
probabilistic techniques. The probabilistic approaches have
significant advantages over the deterministic methods. However,
more complicated modeling is required by the probabilistic
approaches. Power generation model is a basic requirement for this
assessment. One form of the generation models is the well known
capacity outage probability table (COPT). Different analytical
techniques have been used to construct the COPT. These approaches
require considerable mathematical modeling of the generating units.
The unit-s models are combined to build the COPT which will add
more burdens on the process of creating the COPT. Decimal to
Binary Conversion (DBC) technique is widely and commonly applied
in electronic systems and computing This paper proposes a novel
utilization of the DBC to create the COPT without engaging in
analytical modeling or time consuming simulations. The simple
binary representation , “0 " and “1 " is used to model the states o f
generating units. The proposed technique is proven to be an effective
approach to build the generation model.
 IEEE Committee Report, "Bibliography on the Application of
Probability Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation," 1971-
1977, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-
97, No. 6, 1978, pp. 2235-2242.
 R. N. Allan, R. Billinton, and S. H. Lee, 1984. Bibliography on the
Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability
Evaluation, 1977-1982, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and
Systems, PAS-103, pp. 275-282, No. 2.
 R. N. Allan, R. Billinton, S. M. Shahidehpour, and C. Singh,
"Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power
System Reliability Evaluation," 1982-87, IEEE Transactions on Power
Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1988, pp. 1555-1564.
 R. Billinton, "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in
Power System Reliability Evaluation," IEEE Transactions on Power
Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 91, No. 2, 1972, pp.649-660.
 R. Billinton, "Criteria Used by Canadian Utilities in the Planning and
Operation of Generating Capacity," Applied Reliability Assessment in
Electric Power Systems, IEEE press, New York, 1991, pp. 186-191.
 R. N. Allan, R. Billinton, "Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems,"
Plenum Press, New York 1996.
 C. Singh, and N. V. Gubbala, "Comparison of unit addition and fast
Fourier transform methods for generation system reliability evaluation,"
Electrical Power & Energy Systems Vol. 18 No. 4, 1996, pp. 203-205.
 A. Al-Abdulwahab, "Probabilistic Electrical Power Generation
Modeling Using Genetic Algorithm," International Journal of Computer
Applications 5(5):1-6, August 2010. Published By Foundation of
 R. Billinton and A. Abdulwhab, "Short-term generating unit
maintenance scheduling in a deregulated power system using a
probabilistic approach", IEE, Proc.-Gener. Trans., Vol. 150, No. 4, July
2003, PP. 463-468.
 R. Billinton, S. Kumar, K. Chowdhury, K. Chu, K. Debnath, L. Goel, E.
Khan, P. Kos, G. Nourbakhsh, and J. Oteng-Adjei, "A Reliability Test
System for Educational Purposes - Basic Data," IEEE Transactions on
Power Systems, Vol. 4, No. 3, 1989, pp. 1238-1244.